Reactions of the middle atmosphere circulation and stationary planetary waves on the solar activity effects in the thermosphere

Abstract

Using numerical simulations of the general atmospheric circulation during boreal winter, statistically confident evidences are obtained for the first time, demonstrating that changes in the solar activity (SA) in the thermosphere at heights above 100 km can influence propagation and reflection conditions for stationary planetary waves (SPWs) and can modify the middle atmosphere circulation below 100 km. A numerical mechanistic model simulating atmospheric circulation and SPWs at heights 0 – 300 km is used. To achieve sufficient statistical confidence, 80 pairs of 15-day intervals were extracted from an ensemble of 16 pairs of model runs corresponding to low and high SA. Results averaged over these intervals show that impacts of SA above 100 km change the mean zonal wind and temperature up to 10% at altitudes below 100 km. The statistically confident changes in SPW amplitudes due to SA impacts above 100 km reach up to 50% in the thermosphere and 10 – 15% in the middle atmosphere depending on zonal wavenumber. Changes in wave amplitudes correspond to variations of the EP-flux and may alter dynamical and thermal SPW impacts on the mean wind and temperature. Thus, variable conditions of SPW propagation and reflection at thermospheric altitudes may influence the middle atmosphere circulation, thermal structure and planetary waves.